Final Four Contenders

There are many teams that have the capability to make the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament, but there are a handful of teams that are the top of the top, and will be expected to reach the Final Four. The blue blood programs (programs that are consistently good, national powers) aren't doing as well this year, Kansas, North Carolina and Louisville are really the only ones that are good this year. Duke is 16-6 overall but is just 5-4 in conference, Kentucky is also 16-6, but has lost three games in a very poor conference. Arizona is 18-5, which seems good, but they have also struggled in conference with 4 out of their 5 losses coming to conference opponents. It is unlikely that any of these teams will make it very far in the NCAA Tournament. With such programs being down it has made for a far more open college basketball landscape, many top 10 teams have been beaten and there is no real dominant team in basketball. So teams like Xavier, Texas A&M, Iowa, West Virginia, and Oklahoma have risen to the top of their respective conferences. Xavier has a strong record, already at 20-2, but don't have a strong resume because they lack a signature win. The Musketeers have beaten Michigan, USC, and Providence, but they would benefit greatly if they were able to take advantage of their opportunity to knock off Villanova at home later this season. Texas A&M is the team to beat in the SEC, especially because Kentucky is having a bad year. The Aggies have a couple nice wins over Big 12 powers Iowa State and Baylor, and have also taken down Gonzaga and LSU. They are certainly in the running for a #1 seed in the tournament because it appears that they will coast to a regular season SEC Championship.

Iowa has already played most of their big games, losing to Iowa State by one, sweeping Michigan State and Purdue, and losing at Maryland. But I still feel like there is more they need to do, especially if they want to win a Big 10 regular season championship. They have probably only three more games that they could potentially trip up in. They have two games against Indiana that are crucial to deciding who wins the Big 10, and a road trip to Michigan the last game of the season. In reality they will probably go 2-1 in these games, probably losing at Indiana, but they could cement themselves as leaders if they swept Indiana and took care of business in all the rest of their games. I think it is completely reasonable to think that Iowa will not lose another regular season game, probably not more than one, if they do lose. Which would put them at around 25-5 or 26-4, a very solid record, and possibly also be the Big Ten champs. 

West Virginia and Oklahoma are currently leading the Big 12, although it is a toss up as to who will win the Big 12. Oklahoma, West Virginia, Kansas, Baylor and maybe even Iowa State could win it. Although ISU has the most ground to make up as they have already lost four in conference. I would say that any of those five teams could make it to the Final Four, although I'm predicting right now that at least two of them won't make it past the second game of the tournament.