Championship or Bust

The Golden State Warriors are 68-7, and are aiming for 73 wins, which would beat the record set by the 1996 Bulls for most regular season wins. It is a very lofty achievement, not many teams have even been close, so it is understandable that they really want to break the record. But at this point in the season, the Warriors really should be resting their star players to make sure they are ready for the playoffs. Because as impressive the Warriors have been throughout the regular season, it would mean nothing if they didn't win the championship.

In their last seven games they have to play six teams that will be in the playoffs, including two games against the San Antonio Spurs. However I still think it is almost guaranteed that the Warriors will make it to 73 wins, in fact I wouldn't be surprised at all if they finished 75-7. Throughout the season the Warriors have never lost consecutive games, usually they follow a loss with several consecutive wins. So I find it very unlikely that they will somehow loose three games in a seven game stretch. 

Many other teams, especially contenders have started resting their players, the Cavs sat LeBron for a night, the Thunder rested Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka, and the Spurs are notorious for resting their players throughout the season. And these are the teams that are trying to dethrone the Warriors, these teams don't care if the Warriors have had one of the most impressive seasons in NBA history. The Playoffs are a different atmosphere, and the Warriors are the team that everyone is aiming for. The Spurs, Thunder, Cavs, and Clippers have been scheming the whole season trying to figure out how to take them down. Realistically I think that the Spurs have the best chance, having been one of the only contending teams to actually beat the Warriors.  Actually the Spurs did a great job and contained the Warriors, limiting them to their lowest scoring total of the entire season, winning 87-79. The Spurs used the strategy of shutting down Stephen Curry, and held him to 14 points on 4-18 shooting, and actually held the duo of Steph and Klay to a combined 2-19 from three. Plus the didn't even use star defender Kawhi Leonard on Curry, they use their other guards and harrassed Curry. This slows down the Warriors attack and forces the other players to make plays. The Warriors did the same thing to the Cavs in the Finals last year, and LeBron just couldn't do enough to pull it off. I believe the Spurs are one of the only teams capable of shutting down Stephen Curry, and if they can do that in the playoffs then they have a good shot of getting to the Finals.

Final Four

The NCAA tournament is now down from 64 teams to just 4, #2 Oklahoma, #2 Villanova, #10 Syracuse, and #1 North Carolina. Before the tournament started, I think many people thought that there might be some upsets, but for the most part the core teams that had been at the top all season long would make the Final Four. Those teams were Kansas, North Carolina, Michigan State, Oklahoma, and maybe Virginia. But many of the teams that I thought could win a title are now out, Michigan State went first, then Kansas, and finally Virginia. Most people in the nation picked Michigan State and Kansas to make the championship game, as you can see here, in fact about 1/4 picked MSU or KU respectively. So when Michigan State got upset, it was incredibly surprising, but I think it was equally surprising when Villanova took down the Jayhawks. Especially because Villanova for a long time was thought to be a team that didn't make it very far in the tournament, the past couple of years, they didn't make it very far at all despite being high seeds.

Oklahoma was the first team to advance to the Final Four, beating #1 Oregon 80-68. Oklahoma once again used a strong offense, lead by a barrage of three's and good ball movement, but they also held Oregon under 40% shooting. Their next opponent Villanova defeated Kansas 64-59, the Wildcats shot a lower percentage, but coverted their free throws at a high rate, and took better care of the ball than Kansas. Out of these two I would like to say that Oklahoma will advance, but I think that I and most of America, has severely underestimated Villanova. This game will be very close, and there will be a lot of excellent guard play on both sides, but I'm going to take Villanova 80-78.

Syracuse somehow beat Virginia, in fact I saw that Virginia was up by about 12 and I figured that the lead would only grow but the Orange went on a monstrous run to take the lead, and they did not look back. North Carolina used their incredible size, and depth to just overpower #6 Notre Dame 88-74, and they won handily without a great game from one of their star seniors Marcus Paige. I believe that North Carolina will have a very similar game against Syracuse, and I think they will do handily. I think North Carolina is probably the most likely out of the four teams to win it all.

Contender or Pretender

Even though the tournament is down to 8 teams, and every team has beaten three quality teams to get where they are, there are still some teams that have a very low shot at winning the title.

Let's start with the lowest seeded teams, Syracuse and Notre Dame. Syracuse took down #7 Dayton quite convincingly, then took on #15 Middle Tennessee, a team that beat Michigan State, but was really a one hit wonder. After that they played another low seeded team, #11 Gonzaga, but Gonzaga was actually a pretty good team, who had to take down Utah and Seton Hall to get there. But either way Syracuse has had a pretty easy road to the Elite 8 for a team that was seeded tenth, and barely made it into the tournament. I would say that is possible for Orange to make the Final Four, although I doubt they will make it any farther. Notre Dame also had a fairly easy road, although I would say it was slightly tougher than Syracuse. Notre Dame had to take down #11 Michigan, #14 Stephen F Austin, and #7 Wisconsin. Again I think the Irish can only go as far as making the Final Four. 

I think all the other teams in the tourney could all go as far as the tournament game. I think out of the other six Oregon, Villanova, and Virginia are probably the weakest. I think Oregon was over seeded as a 1 seed because I believe that they played in one of the weakest conferences this year, the Pac-12. Even though they were the champs of the Pac-12, I believe they would be better suited as a #2 or #3 seed. Villanova is a very good team, and they are shooting extremely well lately, but I don't know how much longer they can keep it up. If the Wildcats defeat Kansas, then I believe they could very well win the whole thing. Virginia I feel is a very good, but I'm concerned that they just don't have enough offense. Especially because they will likely have to play North Carolina if they make the Final Four, and UNC, who they recently lost to in the ACC title game. 

I believe the other three teams are still the top contenders, after all North Carolina, Oklahoma and Kansas were three of the teams who were thought to be top contenders throughout the year. The only thing missing is Michigan State. I think the perfect final four would be a KU vs OU part three, and MSU vs UNC, but we might have to settle for UNC vs Virginia instead. 

Sweet Sixteen

This year's slate of Sweet Sixteen games did not feature any upsets, and there were only a couple games that were decided by less than 10 points. Really the games only purposes was to weed out the good teams from the great teams. The top overall seed Kansas defeated #5 Maryland 79-63, although it was not a blowout at first. It was actually a close game at half, with Kansas leading 36-34, but Kansas let Maryland shoot from deep, and Maryland just couldn't convert (they shot 5-25 from the 3 point line). That was really the story for most of the games on Thursday, Oregon lead Duke by only five at half, but ended up winning 82-68 behind 22 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists from Dillon Brooks. Villanova held a 43-37 lead at halftime over Miami, but Miami just couldn't stop the Wildcats as Nova shot 62% overall, and 66% from deep. In fact Miami, shot 53% overall and 58% from deep, so it is surprising that they shot so well and still got blown out. On the other end of the spectrum was Texas A&M, who shot a terrible 34% overall (22% from three), and got embarrassed by #2 Oklahoma 77-63. Oklahoma was one of the few teams to put away their opponent in the first half, in fact the game was tied 15-15 about midway through the first half, before OU went on a 30-11 run to end the first half. 

As was true for most of the tournament, the second day of games was better than the first, although this time, the second day still wasn't that great. The two games that set up to be the best games of the day turned out to just be like the games on Thurday. North Carolina was just too much for Indiana, as the Tar Heels won 101-86. Once again the team who was truly elite took down a team who was just pretty good. Then another ACC power Virginia took down Iowa State, who were hurt by their lack of depth. The Cavaliers won 74-61, and used their stifling defense to hold down an Iowa State team who is more comfortable in an up tempo game. The last two games of the day were a lot closer, and they were between higher seeds than you usually see in the Sweet Sixteen. #7 Wisconsin gave up a three point lead with about 30 seconds left, and ended up losing 61-56 to #6 Notre Dame. Gonzaga suffered a similar fate as Wisconsin, as they gave up their 5 point lead with three minutes left, as #10 Syracuse won 63-60. 

Now the Elite 8 field is set, with #1 Kansas taking on #2 Villanova, #1 Oregon playing #2 Oklahoma, #1 North Carolina facing #6 Notre Dame, and finally #1 Virginia will look to defeat #10 Syracuse. 

NCAA Second Round

The second round of the NCAA tournament certainly featured a lot less upsets than the first round, and once again the second day of games were far more entertaining than the first day. On Saturday, it was pretty much all chalk, the 12 seeds that everyone was rooting for both lost with Yale losing to Duke, and Arkansas Little Rock losing to Iowa State. Virginia, North Carolina, and Kansas all took care of their second round games, although UNC and KU had a much easier time than Virginia did. The only upset came when 11 seeded Gonzaga blew out 3 seed Utah 82-59, although I think that the only thing surprising about it was the way Gonzaga won. After all Gonzaga returned many important parts from last years team, which earned a 2 seed, and reached the Elite 8. The best game of the day, and one of the few actual competitive games came when  5 seed Indiana took down border rival and 4 seed Kentucky 73-67.

But like I said the real fun began on the second day, about half of the games were close, but there were still about 3 blowouts. Early on 2 seed Villanova embarrassed 7 seed Iowa 87-68, later on Syracuse easily took down the Cinderella team Middle Tennessee State 75-50. Finally Maryland ended Hawaii's hopes, winning 73-60, they will move on to play Kansas. 

One of the more exiting games of the day was #2 Oklahoma versus #10 VCU, where the Sooners won 85-81. The game looked like it was a blowout at first, as Oklahoma jumped out to a 21-7 lead, but VCU came back and challenged the Sooners down the stretch. The night games were certainly the best games with each game being decided by less than 5 points. First there was Notre Dame beating SFA on a last second tip in, even though Thomas Walkup had 21 points 5 rebounds and 5 assists. Then there was Oregon outlasting St. Joe's 69-64, they will advance on to play Duke. Then #7 Wisconsin beat #2 Xavier 66-63 on this buzzer beater. 

I think most people can agree though that the UNI-Texas A&M game could be the best of the tournament. #11 Northern Iowa had the game all but won with under a minute left, before the greatest collapse in possibly the history of college basketball. UNI was up by 12 on #3 Texas A&M with about 44 seconds left in regulation, but the combination of UNI's absolute collapse, and the intense pressure forced by Texas A&M  down the stretch took the game to overtime. This will be a game that will be a game that will be remembered forever in tourney history, and certainly in Iowa basketball history. 

NCAA First Round

The first round of the NCAA Tournament is over, and only 32 teams remain. Thursday was pretty quiet, there weren't that many upsets unless you count 9 seeds beating 8 seeds. The day started off with Connecticut using a strong second half to beat Colorado 74-67. Which means they will move on to face Kansas in the second round today. Actually all the 9 seeds beat the 8 seeds today, with Butler edging out Texas Tech. In the last game of the day Providence beat USC on a last second tip in, which can be seen here. 11 seeded Wichita State took down 6 seeded Arizona and 11 seeded Gonzaga took down 6 seeded Seton Hall but neither were big upsets as Wichita State and Gonzaga are both very disciplined basketball teams.

However in one of the early games 12 seeded Yale really shook things up when they defeated 5th seeded Baylor. The game was close throughout but Yale prevailed behind 31 points 6 rebounds and 4 assists from Makai Mason. The Bulldogs also out-rebounded Baylor, and did most of their damage inside the 3 point line, which is uncharacteristic of underdogs. Which means they will go on to face Duke, a team that shoots it very well from deep. Later on in the day another 12 vs 5 upset when Arkansas Little Rock took down Purdue 85-83 in double overtime.

Friday however was definitely the more chaotic day of the first round, with multiple upsets and buzzer beaters. But the biggest story of the day was 15 seed Middle Tennessee State beating 2 seed Michigan State. It was probably the biggest upset of the tournament and maybe even the biggest upset in a couple years, especially because Michigan State was a popular pick to win the entire tournament. Both 10 seeds that played on Friday with VCU beating Oregon State 75-67, and Syracuse defeating Dayton 70-51. As the day went on the chaos ensued, with Iowa beating Temple 72-70 in OT on a tip in at the buzzer. Later on 14 seed Stephen F Austin took advantage of 3 seed West Virginia's 22 turnovers to beat the Mountaineers 70-56, with SFA senior Thomas Walkup scoring 33 points. Although that game wasn't that huge of an upset, as SFA is an experienced tournament team, and to me West Virginia wasn't built to make a deep run in the tournament. Another game that was technically an upset, but could be easily predicted was 13 seed Hawaii beating 4 seed California 77-66. Later on the day 11 seed Northern Iowa beat 6 seed Texas on a half court buzzer beater, and Saint Joseph's got away with a win as Cincinnati didn't have enough time to tie the game on a dunk.

Field is Set

All conference tournaments are over and the tournament field is set, with the number one overall seed being Kansas, along with Virginia, North Carolina, and Oregon. Three of them won their conference tournament, with Kansas winning the Big 12, Oregon winning the Pac 12, and North Carolina beat out Virginia for the ACC crown. Michigan State won the Big 10 and were rewarded a 2 seed, and Kentucky won the SEC yet got only a 4 seed, which seems slightly unfair. Seton Hall upset Xavier and Villanova on their way to a Big East title, and St. Joe's upset Dayton and VCU (who both made the tournament), which earned them a Atlantic 10 title, and an 8 seed. Other conference champions who are in the tournament are Connecticut (AAC), Stony Brook (AEC), Florida Gulf Coast (ASC), Weber State (Big Sky), UNC-Asheville (Big South), Hawaii (Big West), UNC-Wilmington (CAA), Middle Tennessee (C-USA), Green Bay (Horizon), Yale (Ivy), Iona (MAAC), Buffalo (MAC), Hampton (MEAC), Northern Iowa (MVC), Fresno State (MWC), Farleigh Dickinson (NC), Austin-Peay (OVC), Holy Cross (Patriot), Chattanooga (Southern), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Southern (SEAC), South Dakota State (Summit), Arkansas Little Rock (Sun Belt), Gonzaga (WCC), and Cal State Bakersfield (WAC).

Most of that group is going to lose in either the first or second round, so it's important to pick the right upsets when making your brackets. Some teams like UNI, Gonzaga, Stephen F. Austin, Wichita State, VCU, and Dayton all make the tournament frequently so they would be a good pick for an upset. Some other qualities that bracket busting teams usually have are great three point shooting, a dominant player, or really good guard play.

However these Cinderella teams rarely make it far past the Sweet Sixteen, so don't get too carried away with the upsets. Usually the Final Four consists of seeds 1-4, with the occasional outsider. Within those top four seeds I think teams like Kansas, North Carolina, Michigan State, Kentucky and Duke all have good chances at deep runs because they have experience in the tournament. Villanova and Virginia are both teams known for early exits in the tournament, but don't over analyze that too much, both are very capable teams. Then there are the teams like Oregon, Oklahoma, Xavier, and Texas A&M don't have very much experience with the NCAA tournament, but all are elite teams.