CBB: 2016-17

Now that the 2015-16 season of college basketball is over it's fair to look ahead to the next season of basketball, the 2016-17 season. Last season of college basketball was heavily influenced by senior leadership, which meant that teams that aren't known for getting big name talent flourished. But I'm guessing that the upcoming season of college basketball could be dominated by freshmen, and blue blood schools. Kentucky probably has the best incoming freshmen class of anyone, the Wildcats have five of the top thirty players in the nation coming to Lexington next year. There are three dominant big men in that class, Edrice Adebayo, Wenyen Gabriel, and Sacha Killeya-Jones. But the real stars are point guard De'Aaron Fox and combo guard Malik Monk. It is hard to predict how many key players will be returning for Kentucky as their coach John Calipari has said he will have all the players on the Wildcats roster test the waters in the draft combine. But I think it safe to say that the small forward, or wing, position is going to be the most vulnerable spot for the Wildcats next season. However with all the talent they will have, Kentucky fans should be expecting another dominant season.

Another program with a lot of potential next year will be Duke, they benefit from the return of star Grayson Allen next year, who averaged over 20 points per game as a junior. Also returning are guard Matt Jones, and Luke Kennard who should add some necessary shooting to the lineup. However the players that will make the Blue Devils great are top five players in small forward Jayson Tatum, and power forward Harry Giles. Both are elite players that will likely only have a one year college career. The one spot that Duke may be weak is interior defense and rebounding, Giles is a powerful force down low, but isn't a true center, and probably won't have much help.

The Big Ten will likely be dominated by Michigan State, Indiana, and Wisconsin, but it's safe to say that MSU will be expected to do big things next year. The Pac-12 is Oregon's to lose, as they return star Dillon Brooks, and many other important pieces. However UCLA should have no reason to be as bad as they were last year, so if they have another repeat year there will be a coaching change. The Big 12 will likely be much less powerful as they were last year. Iowa State, Oklahoma, and Baylor will all likely decline, even Kansas probably won't be as good as they were last year.

2015-2016 College Basketball Season

The latest season of college basketball had it's high points and low points, it featured numerous upsets, games that will go down in history, and strong seasons by a group of seniors. An article by SB Nation (linked here) explains just how turbulent the season was, with five number one ranked teams falling by February, which hasn't happened since 1949. As an Iowa sports fan I had first hand experience with this, because three of the #1 ranked teams lost in the state of Iowa. Northern Iowa beat #1 North Carolina at home very early in the year, then Iowa took down #1 Michigan State in Carver Hawkeye Arena, and finally Iowa State took down #1 Oklahoma inside a very loud Hilton Coliseum. In fact the entire college basketball season was good for the state of Iowa, from each team beating a #1 team, to all the teams making the tournament and making it past the first round.

Then there was the unforgettable games, the most important one being the National Championship game between North Carolina and Villanova. The last couple minutes of that game will be remembered for a long time, and especially the last 10 seconds. With very improbable game tying shot by UNC guard Marcus Paige, to the game winner as the clock expired by Villanova's Kris Jenkins. The other game I was thinking of was the first game between Oklahoma and Kansas, where Kansas won in triple overtime 109-106. It really wasn't fair for one team to win the game because the game just seemed like it would never going to end. There was also a large number of first weekend upsets and close finishes, there was St Joe's barely outlasting Cincinnati, Yale beating Baylor, UNI hitting a half court shot to beat Texas, Wisconsin hitting a buzzer beater to beat Xavier, Middle Tennessee beating Michigan State, and many others that I didn't list.

Then there was the great senior leadership shown by players such as Denzel Valentine, Perry Ellis, Georges Niang, Jarrod Uthoff, Wes Washpun, AJ Hammons, Brice Johnson, Marcus Paige, Buddy Hield, Malcolm Brogdon, and the list goes on and on. These players brought a great four years to college basketball, and there will certainly be a different landscape next year. In fact the next year will probably be a more freshman centered season. High profile players like Jayson Tatum, Harry Giles, and Frank Jackson all heading to Duke, plus the return of Grayson Allen, Duke will probably be one of the better teams in the nation. Along with Kentucky gaining and entire line-up of 5-star prospects, and Lonzo Ball and T.J. Leaf both heading to UCLA. Plus the top prospect in the nation, Josh Jackson, has yet to decide where he will go.

National Championship

The NCAA men's basketball tournament has wound down to two teams competing for the title, North Carolina, and Villanova. On Saturday Villanova took on Oklahoma in the first Final Four game of the day. Although before the game it was predicted to be a relatively close game, with most actually picking Oklahoma to win, Villanova destroyed the Sooners 95-51. At half the Wildcats held a fourteen point lead, but the game wasn't completely over at that point. But the second half was even worse than the first, it was a combination of Villanova shooting the lights out, and Oklahoma being ice cold. In fact it shows how much Villanova has improved because earlier in the season they got blown out by Oklahoma 78-55.

The next game of the double-header was slightly closer, but it wasn't much of a contest either, the Tar Heels used their size and depth to dominate the rebounding battle. Like in many of the games the Tar Heels won this tournament, they slowly but surely increased the lead until the end of the game. While on the one hand North Carolina has easily won all of their games, on the other hand they have had far inferior competition than Villanova. For example since the first round ended North Carolina has played and beaten #9 Providence, #5 Indiana, #6 Notre Dame, and #10 Syracuse. All of those teams are respectable and certainly capable teams, but none of them were truly considered championship contenders. While Villanova had to play #7 Iowa, #3 Miami, #1 Kansas, and #2 Oklahoma, other than Iowa, all of them were title contenders, with Kansas being the favorite for the title.

In terms of the actual game on Monday, us fans can only hope for a close game for once. Because most of the games past the opening weekend have been blowouts, which has sort of made the tournament boring. Villanova has been overlooked for most of the tournament, and they have also been shooting well above 50% each game, so I see no reason to pick against them now. Prediction: Villanova 84 North Carolina 79.

LeBron and the Cavaliers

LeBron James has been the best basketball player in the world over the past decade, and even before that, he is one of the most physically gifted athletes in the history of sports. Over his thirteen year career in the NBA he has played in near 1,000 games, and has played nearly 40,000 minutes, and he has averaged 27 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists over his career. He has scored almost 27,000 points over his career, for some perspective the record for scoring was set by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar with 38,387 points, and the player who is widely considered the best player of all time, Michael Jordan, scored 32,292 points over his career. Although LeBron is aging, and is beginning the downswing of his career, it is almost guaranteed that he will end up in the top five in scoring, and he will probably also end up in the top ten all time for assists. Without a doubt LeBron is an top ten player of all time, and yet at 31 years old, he has only won two NBA Championships and has a 2-4 record all time in the Finals. Most recently to the Golden State Warriors, and also twice to the San Antonio Spurs, and once to the Dallas Mavericks. Usually the problem with LeBron in the playoffs is that he doesn't have enough help, with the Cavaliers he is 0-2 in the Finals, and from 2008-2010 he got eliminated before even reaching the Finals. This year will be very important for LeBron's future with the Cavs, in 2007, LeBron didn't have almost any help and lost 4-0 to the Spurs. Last year was supposed to be the Cavs year, they traded for Kevin Love, and LeBron signed with the Cavs in free agency, and Kyrie Irving had gotten some experience and was developing into a young star. But Kevin Love had his shoulder separated in a first round game against the Celtics. Then Kyrie Irving went down in game seven of a second round game versus the Bulls. So by the time the Cavs reached the Finals they were without two of their top three players, which meant LeBron again had to do everything. He couldn't do it, the Cavs started out 2-1 over the Warriors, but LeBron was the only one who could do anything on offense, and it caught up to them, as the Warriors won the next three games to beat the Cavs and win the NBA Championship.

I think that this years Finals are do or die time for the Cavaliers, if they aren't able to win the Finals yet again, I don't think that LeBron will wait around. He has spent to much time in a city where he can't seem to win. I believe the only ways that LeBron will stay in Cleveland is if the Cavs either win the Finals, or make the team better through free agency this summer.

Championship or Bust

The Golden State Warriors are 68-7, and are aiming for 73 wins, which would beat the record set by the 1996 Bulls for most regular season wins. It is a very lofty achievement, not many teams have even been close, so it is understandable that they really want to break the record. But at this point in the season, the Warriors really should be resting their star players to make sure they are ready for the playoffs. Because as impressive the Warriors have been throughout the regular season, it would mean nothing if they didn't win the championship.

In their last seven games they have to play six teams that will be in the playoffs, including two games against the San Antonio Spurs. However I still think it is almost guaranteed that the Warriors will make it to 73 wins, in fact I wouldn't be surprised at all if they finished 75-7. Throughout the season the Warriors have never lost consecutive games, usually they follow a loss with several consecutive wins. So I find it very unlikely that they will somehow loose three games in a seven game stretch. 

Many other teams, especially contenders have started resting their players, the Cavs sat LeBron for a night, the Thunder rested Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka, and the Spurs are notorious for resting their players throughout the season. And these are the teams that are trying to dethrone the Warriors, these teams don't care if the Warriors have had one of the most impressive seasons in NBA history. The Playoffs are a different atmosphere, and the Warriors are the team that everyone is aiming for. The Spurs, Thunder, Cavs, and Clippers have been scheming the whole season trying to figure out how to take them down. Realistically I think that the Spurs have the best chance, having been one of the only contending teams to actually beat the Warriors.  Actually the Spurs did a great job and contained the Warriors, limiting them to their lowest scoring total of the entire season, winning 87-79. The Spurs used the strategy of shutting down Stephen Curry, and held him to 14 points on 4-18 shooting, and actually held the duo of Steph and Klay to a combined 2-19 from three. Plus the didn't even use star defender Kawhi Leonard on Curry, they use their other guards and harrassed Curry. This slows down the Warriors attack and forces the other players to make plays. The Warriors did the same thing to the Cavs in the Finals last year, and LeBron just couldn't do enough to pull it off. I believe the Spurs are one of the only teams capable of shutting down Stephen Curry, and if they can do that in the playoffs then they have a good shot of getting to the Finals.

Final Four

The NCAA tournament is now down from 64 teams to just 4, #2 Oklahoma, #2 Villanova, #10 Syracuse, and #1 North Carolina. Before the tournament started, I think many people thought that there might be some upsets, but for the most part the core teams that had been at the top all season long would make the Final Four. Those teams were Kansas, North Carolina, Michigan State, Oklahoma, and maybe Virginia. But many of the teams that I thought could win a title are now out, Michigan State went first, then Kansas, and finally Virginia. Most people in the nation picked Michigan State and Kansas to make the championship game, as you can see here, in fact about 1/4 picked MSU or KU respectively. So when Michigan State got upset, it was incredibly surprising, but I think it was equally surprising when Villanova took down the Jayhawks. Especially because Villanova for a long time was thought to be a team that didn't make it very far in the tournament, the past couple of years, they didn't make it very far at all despite being high seeds.

Oklahoma was the first team to advance to the Final Four, beating #1 Oregon 80-68. Oklahoma once again used a strong offense, lead by a barrage of three's and good ball movement, but they also held Oregon under 40% shooting. Their next opponent Villanova defeated Kansas 64-59, the Wildcats shot a lower percentage, but coverted their free throws at a high rate, and took better care of the ball than Kansas. Out of these two I would like to say that Oklahoma will advance, but I think that I and most of America, has severely underestimated Villanova. This game will be very close, and there will be a lot of excellent guard play on both sides, but I'm going to take Villanova 80-78.

Syracuse somehow beat Virginia, in fact I saw that Virginia was up by about 12 and I figured that the lead would only grow but the Orange went on a monstrous run to take the lead, and they did not look back. North Carolina used their incredible size, and depth to just overpower #6 Notre Dame 88-74, and they won handily without a great game from one of their star seniors Marcus Paige. I believe that North Carolina will have a very similar game against Syracuse, and I think they will do handily. I think North Carolina is probably the most likely out of the four teams to win it all.

Contender or Pretender

Even though the tournament is down to 8 teams, and every team has beaten three quality teams to get where they are, there are still some teams that have a very low shot at winning the title.

Let's start with the lowest seeded teams, Syracuse and Notre Dame. Syracuse took down #7 Dayton quite convincingly, then took on #15 Middle Tennessee, a team that beat Michigan State, but was really a one hit wonder. After that they played another low seeded team, #11 Gonzaga, but Gonzaga was actually a pretty good team, who had to take down Utah and Seton Hall to get there. But either way Syracuse has had a pretty easy road to the Elite 8 for a team that was seeded tenth, and barely made it into the tournament. I would say that is possible for Orange to make the Final Four, although I doubt they will make it any farther. Notre Dame also had a fairly easy road, although I would say it was slightly tougher than Syracuse. Notre Dame had to take down #11 Michigan, #14 Stephen F Austin, and #7 Wisconsin. Again I think the Irish can only go as far as making the Final Four. 

I think all the other teams in the tourney could all go as far as the tournament game. I think out of the other six Oregon, Villanova, and Virginia are probably the weakest. I think Oregon was over seeded as a 1 seed because I believe that they played in one of the weakest conferences this year, the Pac-12. Even though they were the champs of the Pac-12, I believe they would be better suited as a #2 or #3 seed. Villanova is a very good team, and they are shooting extremely well lately, but I don't know how much longer they can keep it up. If the Wildcats defeat Kansas, then I believe they could very well win the whole thing. Virginia I feel is a very good, but I'm concerned that they just don't have enough offense. Especially because they will likely have to play North Carolina if they make the Final Four, and UNC, who they recently lost to in the ACC title game. 

I believe the other three teams are still the top contenders, after all North Carolina, Oklahoma and Kansas were three of the teams who were thought to be top contenders throughout the year. The only thing missing is Michigan State. I think the perfect final four would be a KU vs OU part three, and MSU vs UNC, but we might have to settle for UNC vs Virginia instead.